Publications

We strive to publish results in open access journals, but sometimes that doesn't work out, unfortunately. If you are unable to access one of our articles, please contact us and we are happy to share it with you.
(Former) group members are indicated in bold

2024

63. Angélique Melet, Roderik van de Wal, Angel Amores, Arne Arns, Alisée A. Chaigneau, Irina Dinu, Ivan D. Haigh, Tim H. J. Hermans, Piero Lionello, Marta Marcos, H.E. Markus Meier, Benoit Meyssignac, Matthew D. Palmer, Ronja Reese, Matthew J. R. Simpson, and Aimée B.A. Slangen. (2024) Sea Level Rise in Europe: Observations and Projections, State of the Planet, accepted.

2023

62. R. Thieblemont, Le Cozannet, G., D’Anna, M., Idier, D., Belmadani, A., Slangen, A.B.A, Longueville, F. (2023) Chronic Flooding Events Due to Sea-Level Rise in French Guiana, Scientific Reports, doi: 10.1038/s41598-023-48807-w.

61. F. Turner, V. Malagon Santos, T. L. Edwards, A.B.A.Slangen, R.J. Nicholls, G. Le Cozannet, J. O’Neill, M. Adhikari (2023) Illustrative multi-centennial projections of global mean sea-level rise and their application, Earth’s Future, doi:10.1029/2023EF003550

60. Kopp, R. E., Garner, G. G., Hermans, T. H. J., Jha, S., Kumar, P., Reedy, A., Slangen, A. B. A., Turilli, M., Edwards, T. L., Gregory, J. M., Koubbe, G., Levermann, A., Merzky, A., Nowicki, S., Palmer, M.D., & Smith, C. (2023). The Framework for Assessing Changes To Sea-Level (FACTS) v1.0: A platform for characterizing parametric and structural uncertainty in future global,relative, and extreme sea-level change. Geoscientific Model Development, 16, 7461–7489, doi: 10.5194/gmd-16-7461-2023

59. Le Cozannet, G., Nicholls, R.J., Durand, G., Slangen, A.B.A., Lincke, D., Chapuis, A.(2023) Adaptation to multi-meter sea-level rise should start now, Environmental Research Letters, 18 091001, https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/acef3f.

58. Slangen, A.B.A., Malagon Santos, V., Jackson, L.P. (2023) Projecting 21st century global and regional sea-level changes, Encyclopedia of Quaternary Science, 3rd edition. *Email me for a copy*

57. Kopp, R.E., Oppenheimer, M, O’Reilly, J., Drijfhout, S., Edwards, T.E., Fox-Kemper, B., Garner, G.G., Golledge, N., Hermans, T.H.J., Hewitt, H., Horton, B., Krinner, G., Notz, D., Nowicki, S., Palmer, M.D., Slangen, A.B.A., Xiao, C. (2023) Communicating future sea-level rise uncertainty and ambiguity to assessment users, Nature Climate Change, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-023-01691-8

56. Malagon Santos, V., Slangen, A.B.A., Hermans, T.H.J., Dangendorf, S., Marcos, M., Maher, N. (2023) Improving statistical based projections of sterodynamic sea-level change using pattern recognition techniques, Ocean Science, 19 (2), doi: 10.5194/os-19-499-2023

55. Synthesis Report of the IPCC Sixth Assessment Report (AR6) Longer Report (2023)

54. Synthesis Report of the IPCC Sixth Assessment Report (AR6) Summary for Policymakers (2023)

53. Meli, M., Camargo, C.M.L., Olivieri, M., Slangen, A.B.A., Romagnoli, C. (2023) Sea-level trend variability in the Mediterranean during the 1993-2019 period, Frontiers in Marine Sciences, 10, doi: 10.3389/fmars.2023.1150488

52. Hermans, T.H.J., Malagon-Santos, V., Katsman, C.A., Jane, R.A., Rasmussen, D.J., Haasnoot, M., Garner, G.G., Kopp, R.E., Oppenheimer, M., Slangen, A.B.A. (2023) The timing of decreasing flood protection due to sea-level rise, Nature Climate Change

51. C.M.L. Camargo, R.E.M. Riva, T.H.J. Hermans, E.M. Schutt, M. Marcos, I. Hernandez-Carrasco, A.B.A. Slangen (2023) Regionalizing the sea-level budget with machine learning techniques, Ocean Sciences, 19, 17-41, doi: 10.5194/os-19-17-2023

50. A.B.A. Slangen, M.D. Palmer, C.M.L. Camargo, J.A. Church, T.E. Edwards, T.H.J. Hermans, H. Hewitt, G.G. Garner, J.M. Gregory, R.E. Kopp, V. Malagon Santos, R.S.W. van de Wal (2022) The evolution of 21st century sea-level projections from IPCC AR5 to AR6 and beyond, Cambridge Prisms: Coastal Futures, 1, doi: 10.1017/cft.2022.8

49. J.H. Nienhuis, W. Kim, G.A. Milne, M. Quock, A.B.A. Slangen, T.E. Törnqvist (2023) River Deltas and Sea-Level Rise, Annual Reviews of Earth and Planetary Sciences, 51, doi: 10.1146/annurev-earth-031621-093732

2022

48. C.M.L. Carmargo, R.E.M. Riva, T.H.J. Hermans and A.B.A. Slangen (2022) Trends and uncertainties of mass-driven sea-level change in the satellite era, Earth System Dynamics, 13, 1351-1375, doi: 10.5194/esd-13-1351-2022

47. A.B.A. Slangen, M. Haasnoot and G. Winter (2022) Rethinking sea-level projections using families and timing differences, Earth's Future, doi: 10.1029/2021EF002576

46. Z. Zhu, A. Slangen, Q. Zhu, T. Gerkema, T. Bouma, Z. Yang (2022) The role of tides and winds in shaping seed dispersal in coastal wetlands, Limnology and Oceanography, doi: 10.1002/lno.12024

45. G. Durand, M.R. van den Broeke, G. Le Cozannet, T. Edwards, P.R. Holland, N.C. Jourdain, B. Marzeion, R.Motthram, R.N. Nicholls, F. Pattyn, F. Paul, A.B.A. Slangen, R. Winklmann, C. Burgard, C.J. van Calcar, J-B. Barré, A. Bataille and A. Chapuis (2022) Sea level rise: from global perspectives to local services, Frontiers in Marine Science, doi:10.3389/fmars.2021.709595

44. T.H.J. Hermans, Caroline A. Katsman, Carolina M.L. Camargo, Gregory G. Garner, Robert E. Kopp and Aimée B.A. Slangen (2022) The effect of wind stress on seasonal sea-level changes on the Northwestern European Shelf, Journal of Climate, doi: 10.1175/JCLI-D-21-0636.1

2021

43. Fox-Kemper, B., H. T. Hewitt, C. Xiao, G. Aðalgeirsdóttir, S. S. Drijfhout, T. L. Edwards, N. R. Golledge, M. Hemer, R. E. Kopp, G. Krinner, A. Mix, D. Notz, S. Nowicki, I. S. Nurhati, L. Ruiz, J-B. Sallée, A.B.A. Slangen, Y. Yu, 2021, Ocean, Cryosphere and Sea Level Change. In: Climate Change 2021: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Sixth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change [MassonDelmotte, V., P. Zhai, A. Pirani, S. L. Connors, C. Péan, S. Berger, N. Caud, Y. Chen, L. Goldfarb, M. I. Gomis, M. Huang, K. Leitzell, E. Lonnoy, J. B. R. Matthews, T. K. Maycock, T. Waterfield, O. Yelekçi, R. Yu and B. Zhou (eds.)]. Cambridge University Press. In Press. 

T.H.J. Hermans was Chapter Scientist on publication #43.
In addition, A. Slangen contributed to the following chapters of IPCC:

  • WG1 Technical Summary
  • WG1 Summary for Policymakers
  • WG1 Chapter 1: Framing, Context, and Methods + Cross-Working Group Box: Attribution
  • WG1 Chapter 2: Changing State of the Climate System
  • WG1 Chapter 4: Future Global Climate: Scenario-Based Projections and Near-Term Information
  • WG1 Chapter 12: Climate Change Information for Regional Impact and for Risk Assessment
  • Cross-Working Group Box Attribution: Attribution in the IPCC Sixth Assessment Report
  • WG2 Cross-Chapter Box SLR: Sea Level Rise (in Chapter 3)

42. Frederikse, T., S. Adhikari,T.J. Daley, S. Dangendorf, R. Gehrels, F. Landerer, M. Marcos, T.L. Newton, G. Rush, A.B.A. Slangen, G. Wöppelmann (2021) Constraining 20th-century sea-level rise in the South Atlantic Ocean, JGR Oceans, 126, 3, doi: 10.1029/2020JC016970.

41. Hermans, T.H.J., J.M. Gregory, M.D. Palmer, M.A. Ringer, C.A. Katsman, A.B.A. Slangen (2021) Projecting Global Mean Sea-level Change Using CMIP6 Models, Geophysical Research Letters, 48, 5, doi: 10.1029/2020GL092064

40. Nicholls R.J., S.E. Hanson, J.A. Lowe, A.B.A. Slangen, T. Wahl, J. Hinkel, A.J.Long (2021) Developing sea-level scenarios for coastal impact and adaptation assessment: an evolving process, WIREs Climate Change, 12, 3, doi: 10.1002/wcc.706

39. Bell,D.J. Wrathall, V. Mueller, J. Chen, M Oppenheimer, M. Hauer, H. Adams, S. Kulp, P.U. Clark, E. Fussell, N. Magliocca, T. Xiao, E.A. Gilmore, K. Abel, M. Call, A.B.A. Slangen (2021), Migration towards Bangladesh coastlines projected to increase with sea-level rise through 2100, Environmental Research Letters, 16, 2, doi: 10.1088/1748-9326/abcd5b

38. Palmer, M.D., C. Domingues, A.B.A. Slangen and F. Boeira Dias (2021) An ensemble approach to quantify global mean sea-level rise over the 20th century, Environmental Research Letters, 16, 4, doi: 10.1088/1748-9326/abdaec.

2020

37. Hermans, T.H.J., D. Le Bars, C.A. Katsman, C.L.M. Camargo, T. Gerkema, F.M. Calafat, J. Tinker and A.B.A. Slangen (2020) Drivers of interannual sea-level variability on the Northwestern European Shelf, Journal of Geophysical Research: Oceans, 125(10), doi: 10.1029/2020JC016325
 
36. Camargo, C.L.M., R.E.M. Riva, T.H.J. Hermans and A.B.A. Slangen (2020) Exploring Sources of Uncertainty in Steric Sea-Level Change Estimates, Journal of Geophysical Research: Oceans, 125(10), doi: 10.1029/2020JC016551

35. Palmer, M.D., J.M. Gregory, M. Bagge, D. Calvert, J.M. Hagedoorn, T. Howard, V. Klemann, J.A. Lowe, C.D. Roberts, A.B.A. Slangen and G. Spada (2020) Exploring the drivers of regional sea level change over the 21st century and beyond, Earths future, 8(9), doi:10.1029/2019EF001413

34. Han, G., Z. Ma, A.B.A. Slangen (2020) Scenarios of twenty-first century mean sea level rise at tide-gauge stations across Canada, Atmosphere-Ocean, doi:10.1080/0755900.2020.1792404

33. Richter, K., B. Meyssignac, A.B.A. Slangen, A. Melet, J.A. Church, X. Fettweis, B. Marzeion, C. Agosta, S.R.M. Ligtenberg, G. Spada, M.D. Palmer, C.D. Roberts, N. Champollion (2020) Detecting a forced signal in satellite-era sea level change, Environmental Research Letters, doi: 10.1088/1748-9326/ab986e

32. Liang, J., T. Gerkema, D. Idier, A.B.A. Slangen, K. Soetaert (2020), Effects of sea-level rise on tides and sediment dynamics in a Dutch tidal bay, Ocean Sciences, 16, 307-321, doi:10.5194/os-16-307-2020

31. T.H.J. Hermans, J. Tinker, M.D.Palmer, C.A. Katsman, L.L.A. Vermeersen, A.B.A. Slangen (2020), Improving sea-level projections on the Northwestern European Shelf using dynamical downscaling, Climate Dynamics, 54, 1987-2011, doi: 10.1007/s00382-019-05104-5

2019

30. Wrathall, D.J., V. Mueller, P.U. Clark, A. Bell, M. Oppenheimer, M. Hauer, S. Kulp, E. Gilmore, H. Adams, R. Kopp, K. Abel, M. Call, J. Chen, A. deSherbinin, E. Fussell, C. Hay, B. Jones, N. Magliocca, E. Marino, A. Slangen, and K. Warner (2019) Meeting the looming policy challenge of sea-level change and human migration, Nature Climate Change, 9, 898–901, doi:10.1038/s41558-019-0640-4

29. Hock, R., B. Marzeion, A., Bliss, R. Giesen, Y. Hirabayashi, M. Huss, V. Radic, A. Slangen (2019) GlacierMIP - A model intercomparison of global-scale glacier mass-balance models and projections. Journal of Glaciology, 65 (251), 453-467, 10.1017/jog.2019.22

2018

28. Vermeersen, L.L.A., Slangen, A.B.A., Gerkema, T., Baart, F., Cohen, K.M., Dangendorf, S., Duran-Matute, M., Frederikse, T., Grinsted, A., Hijma, M.P., Jevrejeva, S., Kiden, P., Kleinherenbrink, M., Meijles, E.W., Palmer, M.D., Rietbroek, R., Riva, R.E.M., Schulz, .E., Slobbe, D.C., Simpson, M.J.R., Sterlini, P., van de Wal, R.S.W. and van der Wegen, M. (2018), Sea-level change in the Dutch Wadden Sea, Netherlands Journal of Geosciences, 97(3), 79-127, doi:10.1017/njg.2018.7

27. C.T. Perry, L. Alvarez-Filip, N.A.J. Graham, P.J. Mumby, S.K. Wilson, P.S Kench, D.P. Manzello, K.M. Morgan, A.B.A. Slangen, D.P. Thomson, F. Januchowski-Hartley, S.G. Smithers, R.R. Steneck, R. Carlton, E.E. Edinger, I.C. Enochs, N. Estrada-Saldívar, M.D.E. Haywood, G. Kolodziej, G.N. Murphy, E. Pérez-Cervantes, A. Suchley, L. Valentino, R. Boenish, M. Wilson, C. Macdonald (2018) Loss of coral reef growth capacity to track sea-level rise under climate change, Nature, 558, 396–400, doi: 10.1038/s41586-018-0194-z.

2017

26. G. Le Cozannet, R. Nicholls, J. Hinkel, W.V. Sweet, K.L. McInnes, R.S.W. van de Wal, A.B.A. Slangen, J. Lowe, K.D. White (2017) Sea-level projections and coastal climate services: the way forward, Journal of Marine Science and Engineering (Special Issue on Coastal Sea Levels, Impacts and Adaptation), 5(4), 49, doi: 10.3390/jmse5040049.

25. R. de Winter, T.J. Reerink, A.B.A. Slangen, H. de Vries, T. Edwards and R.S.W. van de Wal (2017) Impact of asymmetric uncertainties in ice sheet dynamics on regional sea level projections. Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences, 17, 2125-2141, doi: 10.5194/nhess-2017-86. (Highlight Article)

24. K. Richter, J.E.Ø. Nilsen, R.P. Raj, I. Bethke, J.A. Johannessen, A.B.A. Slangen and B. Marzeion (2017) Northern North Atlantic sea level in CMIP5 climate models - evaluation of mean state, variability and trends against altimetric observations. Journal of Climate, 30(23), 9383-9398, doi: 10.1175/JCLI-D-17-0310.1.

23. B. Meyssignac, A.B.A. Slangen, A. Melet, J.A. Church, X. Fettweis, B. Marzeion, C. Agosta, S.R.M. Ligtenberg, G. Spada, K. Richter, M.D. Palmer, C.D. Roberts, N. Champollion (2017) Evaluating model simulations of 20th century sea-level rise. Part 2: regional sea-level change. Journal of Climate, 30(21), 8565-8593, doi: 10.1175/JCLI-D-17-0112.1.

22. A.B.A. Slangen, B. Meyssignac, C. Agosta, N.Champollion, J.A. Church, X. Fettweis, S.R.M. Ligtenberg, B. Marzeion, A. Melet, M.D. Palmer, K. Richter, C.D. Roberts, G. Spada (2017) Evaluating model simulations of 20th century sea-level rise. Part 1: global mean sea-level change. Journal of Climate, 30(21), 8539-8563, doi: 10.1175/JCLI-D-17-0110.1.

21. W.I. van de Lageweg and A.B.A. Slangen (2017) Predicting dynamic coastal delta change in response to sea-level rise, Journal of Marine Science and Engineering (Special Issue on Coastal Sea Levels, Impacts and Adaptation), 5(2), 24, doi: 10.3390/jmse5020024.

20. T. Wong, A. Bakker, K. Ruckert, P. Applegate, A.B.A. Slangen, K. Keller (2017) BRICK v0.2, a simple, accessible, and transparent model framework for climate and regional sea-level projections, Geoscientific Model Development, 10, 2741-2760, doi: 10.5194/gmd-10-2741-2017.

19. T. Wahl, I.D. Haigh, R. Nicholls, A. Arns, S. Dangendorf, J. Hinkel, A.B.A. Slangen (2017) Understanding extreme sea levels for broad-scale coastal impact and adaptation analysis, Nature Communications, 8: 16075, doi: 10.1038/ncomms16075.

18. A.B.A. Slangen, R.S.W. van de Wal, T.J. Reerink, R.C. de Winter, J.R. Hunter, P.L.Woodworth and T. Edwards (2017) The impact of uncertainties in ice sheet dynamics on sea-level allowances at tide gauge locations, Journal of Marine Science and Engineering (Special Issue on Coastal Sea Levels, Impacts and Adaptation), 5(2), 21, doi: 10.3390/jmse5020021. (Feature Paper)

17. P. Goodwin, I.D. Haigh, E.J. Rohling and A. Slangen (2017) A new approach to projecting 21st century sea-level changes and extremes, Earth's Future, 5(2), 240-253, doi: 10.1002/2016EF000508.

16. S. Jevrejeva, A. Matthews and A. Slangen (2017) The twentieth century sea-level budget: recent progress and challenges, Surveys in Geophysics, 38(1), 295-307, doi: 10.1007/s10712-016-9405-z.

15. A.B.A. Slangen, F. Adloff, S. Jevrejeva, P.W. Leclercq, B. Marzeion, Y. Wada and R. Winkelmann (2017) A review of recent updates of sea level projections at global and regional scales, Surveys in Geophysics, 38(1), 385-406, doi: 10.1007/s10712-016-9374-2.

14. M. Marcos, B. Marzeion, S. Dangendorf, A.B.A. Slangen, H. Palanisamy and L. Fenoglio-Marc (2017) Internal variability versus anthropogenic forcing on sea level and its components, Surveys in Geophysics, 38(1), 329-348, doi: 10.1007/s10712-016-9373-3.

2016

13. A.B.A. Slangen and J.T.M. Lenaerts (2016) The sea-level response to ice sheet freshwater forcing in the Community Earth System Model, Environmental Research Letters, 11, 104002, doi: 10.1088/1748-9326/11/10/10404002.

12. A.B.A. Slangen, J. A. Church, C. Agosta, X. Fettweis, B. Marzeion and K. Richter (2016) Anthropogenic forcing dominates global mean sea-level rise since 1970, Nature Climate Change, 6, 701-705, doi: 10.1038/NCLIMATE2991.

11. M. Carson, A. Koehl, D. Stammer, A.B.A. Slangen, C.A. Katsman, R.S.W. van de Wal, J. A. Church, N. White (2016) Coastal Sea Level Changes, Observed and Projected during the 20th and 21st Century, Climatic Change, 134 (1), 269-281, doi: 10.1007/s10584-015-1520-1.

2015

10. A.B.A. Slangen, J. A. Church, X. Zhang and D. Monselesan (2015) The sea-level response to external forcings in historical simulations of CMIP5 climate models, Journal of Climate, 28(21), 8521-8539, doi: 10.1175/JCLI-D-15-0376.1.

9. G. Han, Z. Ma, N. Chen, R. Thomson, and A. Slangen (2015) Changes in Mean Relative Sea Level around Canada in the Twentieth and Twenty-First Centuries, Atmosphere-Ocean, 53(5), 452-463, doi:10.1080/07055900.2015.1057100.

2014

8. K. Lyu, X. Zhang, J.A. Church, A.B.A. Slangen and J. Hu (2014) Time of emergence for regional sea-level change, Nature Climate Change, 4, 1006-1010, doi: 10.1038/nclimate2397.

7. A.B.A. Slangen, J. A. Church, X. Zhang and D. Monselesan (2014) Detection and attribution of global mean thermosteric sea-level change, Geophysical Research Letters, 41(16), 5951-5959, doi: 10.1002/2014GL061356.

6. A.B.A. Slangen, R. S. W. van de Wal, Y. Wada and L. L. A. Vermeersen (2014) Comparing tide gauge observations to regional patterns of sea-level change (1961-2003), Earth System Dynamics, 5, 243-255, doi:10.5194/esd-5-243-2014.

5. A.B.A. Slangen, M. Carson, C.A. Katsman, R.S.W. van de Wal, A. Koehl, L.L.A. Vermeersen and D. Stammer (2014) Projecting twenty-first century regional sea-level changes, Climatic Change, 124, 317-332, doi: 10.1007/s10584-014-1080-9.

4. G. Han, Z. Ma, H. Bao, A. Slangen (2014) Regional Differences of Relative Sea Level Changes in the Northwest Atlantic: Historical Trends and Future Projections, J. Geophys. Res. Oceans, 119, 156-164, doi: 10.1002/2013JC009454.

2012

3. A.B.A. Slangen, C.A. Katsman, R.S.W. van de Wal, L.L.A. Vermeersen and R.E.M. Riva (2012) Towards regional projections of twenty-first century sea-level change based on IPCC SRES scenarios, Climate Dynamics, 38(5-6), 1191-1209, doi: 10.1007/s00382-011-1057-6.

2011

2. A.B.A. Slangen and R.S.W. van de Wal (2011) An assessment of uncertainties in using volume-area modelling for computing the twenty-first century glacier contribution to sea-level change, The Cryosphere, 5, 673-686, doi: 10.5194/tc-5-673-2011.

2009

1. A.B.A. Slangen and M. J. Schmeits (2009) Probabilistic forecasts of winter thunderstorms around Amsterdam Airport Schiphol, Adv. Sci. Res., 3, 39-43.

**email us for a copy if you don't have access to a particular publication**
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PhD Theses

# The causes of regional sea-level change since 1993, C.M.L. de Camargo (2023), PhD thesis, TU Delft.

# Understanding sea-level change using global and regional models, T.H.J. Hermans (2022), PhD thesis, TU Delft. ISBN 978-94-6419-524-8.

# Modelling regional sea-level changes in recent past and future, A.B.A. Slangen (2012), PhD thesis, Utrecht University. ISBN 978-90-393-5868-9.

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Other publications (an incomplete overview)

# A. Slangen (2018) How humans and rising seas affect each other, Nature 558, 196-197, doi: 10.1038/d41586-018-05366-9.

# CLIVAR Exchanges (74, 2018) Evaluating climate model simulations of 20th century sea-level rise, Meyssignac, Slangen, et al.

# Book chapters in Integrative study of the mean sea level and its components, ISSI Space Science Series 58, edited by Cazenave, Champollion, Paul and Benveniste (2017).

# ECRA White paper Sea level related adaptation needs in Europe (2016).

# National Marine Science Plan Australia 2015-2025 (2015). Contributing author to white paper on Climate Change, Section Sea Level.

# IPCC WG1 Fifth Assessment report (2014). Contributing author, Chapter 13: Sea Level Change.

# Slangen, A. (2008) Probabilistic forecasts of winter thunderstorms around Schiphol Airport using model output statistics, KNMI Technical report; TR-300